Tuesday, August 12, 2014

How to measure portfolio return

At the blog AnotherValueInvestor there is currently a miniseries on how to calculate your own portfolio return. I would therefore like to give my view on how to calculate the annual compounded return for your portfolio. This is fairly easy to do with a spreadsheet program like Excel, Numbers or Google Docs Spreadsheet. For my own tracking I have used Excel since late 2000.

First start with identifying the exact dates and amounts for all your deposits and withdrawals from your stock accounts. Then do the following in your spreadsheet program:

Create two input fields (orange fields at the top first column in the figure below):
[A] today's date. If using Excel, use the TODAY() function
[B] the estimated portfolio return (denoted as 'CAGR to reach current value of portfolio'). Start e.g. with 10% as a reasonable starting value

Create at least four columns (six if you want to compare yourself with any index) with the following contents:
[1] Date (enter the date for the deposit or withdrawal to your account)
[2] Amount of deposit or withdrawal
[3] Calculate the number of years since the deposit or withdrawal (there are several simple functions in e.g. Excel to calculate this) using the input [A] above and column [1]
[4] Calculate the compounded value of your deposit or withdrawal [2] today given the estimated portfolio return [B] and time [3] since this deposit or withdrawal. The formula is    = [2] * ( ( 1 + [B] ) ^ [3] ).  "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it." Albert Einstein

Create also at least one output field (grey fields at the top first column in the figure below):
[C] Current value of portfolio. In this field you summarize the whole [4] column. With everything now set, the output figure [C] should become equal to your current portfolio value (check in your stock account what it is on the [A] date) once you have the right [B] value input. Either test yourself (5-10 tries will normally make you come very close), or use a built in function like 'Goal Seek' in Excel.

Kids, I would like you to remember that my primary target regarding portfolio return is to measure that the compounded return over time is at least 10%* (read this previous post regarding having an absolute return target). However, it can still be relevant to compare to the most relevant practical alternative that I could entrust our capital to. That would most likely be an index fund that would try to closely follow the SIXRX index (such as Handelsbanken Sverigefond Index or SEB Sverige Indexfond).

Hence, for comparison, I have added in the SIXRX index. Find the index value for each relevant date and add them into a fifth column [5]. Then calculate in the sixth column [6] the current value of the deposit or withdrawal by dividing today's closing SIXRX index [D] (see the top right orange input field) with [5] and multiply with the deposit or withdrawal value [2]. Sum up all values in column [6] to calculate the value of the portfolio if you had invested in SIXRX [E]. Then use the [B] input again to match the [C] output with [E] and you will find the annual compounded interest that the SIXRX would have given you.

This model is simple to update every time you make a new deposit or withdrawal, just add a line and make sure the sums are correct in the 'grey output fields'. Using this model I can see that currently my portfolio have had an annual compounded return of 11,85% which is above my 10% absolute return target and 2,01%-points better than SIXRX.

Figure. Excerpt of simple model to calculate annual compounded return on your investment portfolio.

Using this model it is also very easy to see how much a withdrawal a long time ago have cost me. For instance, the withdrawal in May 2001 of 146 kSEK would have been worth 646 kSEK today in nominal terms before tax (while inflation has been about 17% during the same period). These things are always good to reflect upon...

Anyway kids, your portfolio is growing at a slightly higher pace (17,25%) mainly due to the fact that it is still more concentrated to fewer large (and so far successful) investments. So far it has also well outperformed SIXRX with about 5%-points.

* measured pre tax regarding capital gains tax in normal VP-account, after tax for ISK-account and after all transaction costs

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