Saturday, July 18, 2015

2014 - a year of very poor performance

Last year's investment decision have cost us (at least in the short term) minimum 0,5 MSEK. It turned out to probably be one of the worst years for me during the last twelve years. I sold a couple of quality companies (such as H&M, Industrivärden and AstraZeneca) as I deemed them overvalued, and instead bought three Norwegian oil-services related companies that I thought seemed undervalued. I have not been so wrong in a long time...

The two main mistakes I made was to
a) go outside my 'circle of competence' and
b) not do my homework properly (at least in two out of the three companies)
Both are really noob mistakes (to write in your language kids). The fall in oil price I just did not see coming... With hindsight, I would still not able to predict it when investing, but I should have been aware of the risk and therefor not have invested in those kind of companies. Now, I still hold on to all those three companies as I believe there should be an upswing in the prices within 5-10 years (and I have no better investment ideas). We'll have to wait and see if I continue to make the same mistake a third time.

Fortunately, I made a few very good investments as well, but the still total performance was very poor. I am extremely disappointed with myself for making such bad investment decisions, bordering on the line of speculation.

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