Right now I am operating with a minimum target level of 7% total return (in nominal terms, i.e. without taking inflation into account) over the long-term (20+ years). In real terms I expect that to be about 5,5% total real return (i.e. after inflation), assuming inflation continues to be at the same low rates as last 21 years (about 1,4% CAGR measured as CPI (KPI) by SCB in Sweden). If the return I generate is less than that, I believe I should just hand over my money to the cheapest index fund there is and spend my time on something else.
The reason for this is that absolute return on my capital is of much higher importance than beating an index. I will not be able to retire by beating an index. I will be able to retire because the businesses I own on average will increase my equity base by at least 7% p.a. I believe this way of thinking is more close to how an owner of a business thinks, and I like my investments to be closer to that thinking than to beating some index that I anyway do not understand.
Now, 7% is not my target level. Currently it is rather 10% p.a. in nominal terms. So far, since end of 2000 which is as far back I can track my figures, I have had a CAGR return of some 12%+ in nominal terms. Now, as I still have a very large share of my financial assets invested in stocks, and I believe them to be somewhat overvalued currently, I would say that the 'true' intrinsic value CAGR is somewhere between 9-10%.
Given that I would be able to spend 100% of my time allocating capital, I would probably raise the target level to 12%. The figures may not seem very impressive, but having these levels over long periods of time is much harder than one thinks when you are young. Mistakes (losing all or a large part of your money) also takes a very large bite out of your total return.
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